Labor will perform stronger in the Midlands and northern England next week, according to an exclusive new local election projection for Sky News, which suggests the “red wall” is starting to leave the Tories.
The Tories are also likely to struggle in key seats elsewhere in England, although the poll did not expect as many Labor gains in key general election battlegrounds further south.
The performance of Tory councils at the “blue wall” may also cause concern among party chiefs, where Lib Dem advances look set to end years of Tory control of key councils, with Ed Davey’s party on course to secure possible earnings.
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YouGov is projecting the likely outcome and voting patterns in 18 key battleground councils the local elections of May 4reflecting different types of electoral struggles in different parts of the country.
He projects that Labor could be on course for a big win in Swindon, a major long-standing battleground between the two main parties.
Currently controlled by the Conservatives, the poll now says it is leaning towards Labor and there will be significant gains for the party in the area.
YouGov local election predictions exclusively for Sky News: Red arrows point to gains for Labor
Darlington in the Tees Valley, a former Labor stronghold now out of overall control, could also see a win for Sir Keir Starmer’s party.
Many Tory wards have substantial majorities, making the job more difficult and meaning a win here will cheer party bosses.
The Tories have hoped the popularity of Tees Valley Mayor Ben Houchen will slow Labor advances in the area.
Labor could also take Plymouth without an overall – a key tip watched closely by the parties’ electoral chiefs because they believe its demographics represent the country more broadly.
The Tories could also lose rugby in the West Midlands, while Worcester could walk away from Labor without overall control.
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The data is based on 6,000 people surveyed over the past week, with projections for individual councils calculated by MRP, the method used to predict the results of the 2017 and 2019 general elections.
In Red Wall, the YouGov model found that councils such as Dudley, North East Lincolnshire and Hyndburn were likely to see Labor make significant gains.
Sunderland, where as recently as 2021 a rising local Conservative Party threatened to wrest control from the Labor majority, now appears to be solidly Labour.
Nearby, to the north-east, the unitary authority of Darlington leans Labour; a win here would be a major marker on Labour’s path to reclaiming the Red Wall.
In the Blue Wall areas, the Liberal Democrats are looking to build on successive strong local election cycles and take control of a number of councils in these traditionally conservative counties.
The model expects Lib Dem gains in each of Wokingham, Chichester and Windsor and Maidenhead, but council control in each remains too close to call.
YouGov local election predictions exclusively for Sky News: Red arrows indicate gains for Labour, orange arrows indicate gains for the Lib Dems
Looking further east, East Cambridgeshire Blue Wall council leans Lib Dem.
The party came within a few seats of taking control of that council in 2019, and our model expects them to get the job done this time.
However, Dartford is expected to remain in Tory hands. In fact, there is a chance that the Conservatives will increase their majority in one council in one of the most reliable constituencies in the House of Commons.
