Rishi Sunak has been warned of further rebellions by increasingly “disaffected” Tory MPs if he fails to improve the party’s dire poll numbers, as a new poll found the Tories trailing Labor by 18 points.
A Savanta ComRes poll for The Independenta month after Mr. Sunak took over from Liz Truss, shows Labor ahead with 46 per cent support and the Tories languishing on just 28 per cent.
The slight bounce that Mr. Sunak’s bid for his party to become prime minister has now “broken down”, according to experts who said Labour’s huge lead appeared to be a “new normal”.
Conservative MPs on the party’s right warned that if poll numbers did not improve in the spring local elections, it would lead to widespread unrest and could even see a push for the return of the “election winner”. Boris Johnson.
Polling guru Professor John Curtice said it was clear the Autumn Budget had resulted in “no real improvement” in the Tories’ fortunes. “Sunak’s bounce appears to have stalled. A Labor leadership of this scale would result in an overwhelming majority in the general election,” he said.
The new Savanta ComRes poll, conducted after last week’s Budget, shows the Conservatives up 2 points and Labor down one point from their previous poll. Although the poll found a five-point swing to the Conservatives in the days after Sunak entered No. 10, there has been little change since then.
“A poll bounce of some kind was inevitable because Liz Truss was a disaster in the eyes of the voters, but now it has broken down,” said Chris Hopkins, director of political research at Savanta ComRes.
He added: “All the Tories’ economic credibility is gone, and there is very little Sunak can do to get it back. Labor has a right to feel optimistic that his great leadership will continue amid so much economic gloom. For now seems to have settled into a new normal.”
Savanta’s expert also noted that Mr. Sunak (-3) in his first month at number 10 compares poorly with Boris Johnson, who enjoyed a positive (+15) rating during his first month in office in 2019.
Mr Sunak faces backbench revolts over housebuilding targets and a ban on onshore wind, suspicion over his post-Brexit plans and unease over harassment allegations facing his prime minister deputy Dominic Raab.
Both Mr Johnson and Ms Truss have signed former minister Simon Clarke’s amendment which seeks to overturn his de facto ban on onshore wind development, and it is understood Labor will support the move.
Despite Mrs Truss’s disastrous mini-budget, many of the MPs who had backed her growth agenda are still angry about the tax hikes imposed in Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s Autumn Budget.
A conservative MP on the right of the party said The Independent: “There has never been much enthusiasm [Mr Sunak] within the party The support is not as strong as people think.”
The MP added: “If the polls don’t improve with the local elections, people in the party will see they don’t have a winner. More MPs will be disaffected and conflicted – it will be in trouble. There will be people’s rebellion with more risk in the next election”.
Asked if it could mean another bid to change the party leader, the MP said: “If Boris solves the [Partygate] consult, he will be the prince of water. There’s every chance he could come back, because he’s a winner.”
Brexit hardliners at the European Research Group (ERG) remain wary of the Prime Minister after speculation the government was considering ways to forge a “Swiss-style” alignment with the EU to gain market access unique
Sunak and Hunt have been at pains to reject the idea of renegotiating single market access with the EU. But the chancellor did not deny he was the source of claims the government was interested in the Swiss approach.
A Tory ERG MP said it was a “worrying sign” of the government’s thinking. “We are watching very closely for any softening of the position,” they said.
However Tory MP Bob Seely, one of 54 who rebelled against the leveling bill by backing an amendment to remove strict house building targets, insisted Sunak had managed to unify the match.
“No one serious in the party is saying anything other than we have to get behind our leader,” he said The Independent.
Seely added: “I have nothing but respect for him; if anyone can change things, they will. We have to give them time. The debates that will take place will not be pro or anti-Rishi, they will be big political arguments.”
Dehenna Davison, the star of the 2019 induction of “red wall” MPs, has become the latest Tory to reveal she will stand down at the next election, following planned exits announced by Gary Streeter, Chloe Smith and William Wragg .
CCHQ is now bracing for a mass exodus, with some predicting that as many as 80 Tories may decide to quit amid dire polls and a bleak outlook for the 2024 general election.
A moderate Sunak supporter said many colleagues had already given up on the party winning the election, even if those with large majorities still hoped to keep their seats. “The next election is probably gone,” they said.
“Some with small majorities may be polishing resumes and decide to resign. Some of us who want to stay are thinking about how we shape the party after an electoral defeat,” added the MP, saying he wanted to fight for his seat and avoid that the party “change more to the right”.
Conservative peer and poll expert Lord Hayward said it was “surprising that younger MPs are retiring – this suggests it could be slightly higher than the normal 30 or 40 retirements”.
Pleading for patience over a possible recovery in the poll, Lord Hayward said he would be “surprised to see the share solidly above 30% until well after Christmas – a recovery will be baby steps rather than leaps and bounds”.
The Savanta ComRes voting intention survey of 2,106 people was conducted between November 18 and 20.
